2003 TopCoder Open sponsored by Intel® - Computer Programming Tournament

radeye's odds

Beat the odds! These results of over 10,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations predict your chances to advance in the 2003 TopCoder Open sponsored by Intel® based only on your current TopCoder rating and volatility. Prove that you're underrated as you advance through the Tournament. Also remember that in any sufficiently large set of events, some will be of vanishingly small probability.

The model used here is a normal distribution with the mean of your rating and standard deviation of your volatility, assuming every advancing coder scores at least 0 points, and everyone competes in every round they are eligible for. This information is provided for entertainment purposes only.

By radeye
TopCoder Member

				Probability of advancing to:				Probability of finishing as:
Handle	Rating	Volatility	Earnings	Online 3	Online 4	Semifinals	Finals	4th	3rd	2nd	Champ
SnapDragon	3359	313	$26 461.87	100.	100.	98.5	81.1	3.27	10.5	23.3	44.0
tomek	3188	357	$14 303.79	100.	99.7	92.4	62.9	7.96	15.1	20.2	19.6
reid	3131	351	$11 419.10	100.	99.6	90.2	56.6	9.09	15.5	17.6	14.5
ZorbaTHut	2983	413	$5 652.17	99.4	96.7	75.3	34.1	10.1	9.71	8.17	6.11
NGBronson	2946	419	$4 695.18	99.2	95.7	71.5	29.4	9.50	8.44	6.71	4.78
Yarin	2862	279	$2 763.67	100.	99.1	74.9	20.7	7.11	7.50	4.58	1.54
dgarthur	2756	491	$1 822.42	95.2	83.5	47.6	11.6	5.08	3.10	2.08	1.38
bladerunner	2759	305	$1 506.49	99.6	96.5	59.4	9.54	3.85	3.31	1.81	.568
ChristopherH	2780	392	$1 725.15	98.4	92.0	56.2	9.96	3.81	3.06	2.05	1.04
radeye	2781	279	$1 450.79	99.9	98.1	64.3	7.31	2.57	2.63	1.59	.522
dmwright	2776	342	$1 473.64	99.3	95.0	59.1	7.21	2.60	2.34	1.56	.711
bstanescu	2768	317	$1 362.47	99.5	96.1	59.8	6.40	2.33	2.15	1.37	.549
venco	2758	344	$1 355.82	99.1	94.3	56.7	6.75	2.60	2.19	1.38	.587
WishingBone	2791	411	$1 756.26	98.1	91.1	56.2	9.67	3.66	2.87	2.00	1.14
ambrose	2645	334	$829.50	98.3	89.8	42.2	3.75	1.86	1.17	.552	.167
malpt	2575	335	$615.20	97.1	85.0	33.0	2.34	1.31	.682	.274	.071
				Probability of advancing to:				Probability of finishing as:
Handle	Rating	Volatility	Earnings	Online 3	Online 4	Semifinals	Finals	4th	3rd	2nd	Champ
DjinnKahn	2596	336	$680.95	97.5	86.5	35.7	2.93	1.60	.870	.359	.095
bigg_nate	2583	491	$758.39	90.6	71.5	30.6	4.19	2.30	1.03	.564	.295
snewman	2699	620	$1 446.50	89.1	70.9	36.6	8.52	4.09	1.89	1.33	1.22
dary	2662	509	$1 121.99	92.3	76.1	37.4	6.87	3.44	1.73	1.04	.645
tjq	2568	282	$578.87	98.7	89.8	32.2	2.04	1.20	.610	.196	.034
dangelo	2530	429	$568.17	91.6	72.2	26.7	2.76	1.65	.698	.307	.112
jms137	2520	162	$373.54	100.	97.6	18.7	.402	.262	.117	.021	.001
doeth	2434	460	$388.48	86.0	60.5	18.2	1.52	.992	.339	.140	.051
lars	2456	330	$374.96	94.2	74.5	19.2	.916	.609	.229	.066	.012
obfuscator	2356	330	$248.81	89.8	62.3	10.6	.304	.223	.064	.015	.002
evd	2352	435	$271.46	83.0	53.7	12.4	.662	.465	.137	.046	.013
antimatter	2495	368	$455.95	93.5	74.6	23.5	1.57	.979	.406	.146	.037
ante	2355	264	$228.20	94.3	69.3	8.30	.125	.093	.026	.005	.000
loopy	2349	393	$256.61	85.3	56.2	11.5	.457	.326	.096	.028	.006
po	2384	262	$255.69	95.5	73.7	10.4	.174	.127	.039	.007	.001
bmerry	2499	440	$490.60	89.9	68.4	23.7	2.02	1.21	.502	.221	.082
				Probability of advancing to:				Probability of finishing as:
Handle	Rating	Volatility	Earnings	Online 3	Online 4	Semifinals	Finals	4th	3rd	2nd	Champ
Xu Chuan	2295	411	$211.60	80.8	48.7	8.72	.280	.205	.054	.016	.004
legakis	2291	226	$168.85	94.0	63.4	3.30	.016	.013	.003	.000	.000
zoidal	2363	328	$253.32	90.3	63.4	11.1	.257	.184	.057	.014	.002
LunaticFringe	2299	622	$269.81	72.0	41.1	11.2	.943	.637	.171	.084	.050
Oblok	2286	453	$212.30	77.9	45.6	8.95	.330	.239	.064	.021	.006
grotmol	2392	437	$310.76	85.1	57.8	15.0	.746	.494	.168	.064	.020
schveiguy	2259	274	$159.34	87.9	52.9	3.69	.022	.017	.004	.001	.000
ntrhieu	2303	439	$222.15	79.8	48.1	9.58	.322	.229	.065	.022	.006
adic	2197	348	$138.31	77.2	39.3	3.45	.030	.024	.005	.001	.000
O_O	2319	370	$221.11	84.9	54.2	9.24	.194	.140	.040	.011	.002
axch	2213	334	$144.13	79.5	42.0	3.65	.028	.023	.005	.001	.000
Maris	2223	277	$140.49	84.8	46.6	2.62	.010	.009	.002	.000	.000
Logan	2157	445	$134.32	68.9	32.5	4.01	.067	.053	.011	.003	.001
Jan_Kuipers	2228	494	$179.22	72.2	38.4	7.04	.224	.164	.040	.014	.005
vorthys	2152	267	$109.82	78.9	35.1	1.02	.002	.002	.000	.000	.000
Wasteland	2161	351	$122.70	73.8	34.6	2.58	.016	.013	.002	.001	.000
				Probability of advancing to:				Probability of finishing as:
Handle	Rating	Volatility	Earnings	Online 3	Online 4	Semifinals	Finals	4th	3rd	2nd	Champ
dvickrey	2237	207	$138.50	92.5	54.7	1.25	.002	.001	.000	.000	.000
Abednego	2192	363	$138.13	75.8	38.2	3.61	.031	.024	.005	.001	.000
haha	2214	359	$148.50	78.0	41.2	4.22	.038	.030	.007	.001	.000
eldering	2196	389	$143.99	74.7	37.9	4.23	.047	.037	.008	.002	.000
gilbert	2119	234	$97.44	78.0	29.9	.349	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
milhouse	2251	509	$196.02	73.1	40.1	8.13	.285	.203	.053	.021	.008
Ken Vogel	2223	304	$144.55	82.6	45.0	3.28	.015	.012	.003	.000	.000
qubits	2133	328	$109.15	72.4	31.3	1.65	.005	.004	.001	.000	.000
Modulator	2131	244	$101.44	78.5	32.0	.519	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
overwise	2195	436	$150.45	72.3	36.5	5.00	.077	.059	.013	.004	.001
mathijs	2254	609	$220.11	69.9	37.9	9.27	.510	.349	.091	.043	.026
Ken Alverson	2148	270	$108.63	78.2	34.4	1.01	.001	.001	.000	.000	.000
Ryan	2129	295	$104.34	74.2	31.1	1.11	.002	.002	.000	.000	.000
halflife	2098	297	$94.90	70.5	26.8	.781	.001	.001	.000	.000	.000
jshute	2193	353	$136.85	76.5	38.6	3.43	.020	.016	.003	.001	.000
jonmac	2096	539	$123.00	61.6	26.6	3.76	.077	.059	.012	.004	.002
				Probability of advancing to:				Probability of finishing as:
Handle	Rating	Volatility	Earnings	Online 3	Online 4	Semifinals	Finals	4th	3rd	2nd	Champ
madking	2096	279	$93.03	71.5	26.4	.584	.001	.000	.000	.000	.000
cvoinescu	2215	387	$153.06	76.4	40.2	4.81	.045	.034	.008	.002	.000
along	2033	347	$82.19	60.8	19.9	.688	.001	.001	.000	.000	.000
skanthak	2094	265	$91.63	72.2	26.1	.445	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
enderx	2065	539	$112.40	59.4	24.3	3.14	.055	.043	.008	.003	.001
TekGoNos	2006	286	$72.11	59.4	15.6	.182	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
wleite	1974	378	$72.44	53.8	15.3	.518	.001	.001	.000	.000	.000
gawry	2041	471	$96.89	58.7	22.1	1.99	.016	.013	.002	.001	.000
gepa	2104	639	$141.09	60.3	26.9	4.99	.183	.136	.027	.013	.007
space	2019	274	$74.11	61.7	16.6	.171	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
hgliebe	2015	471	$90.16	56.5	20.1	1.64	.012	.010	.002	.000	.000
cruizza	2030	279	$76.72	63.0	18.0	.227	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Klinck	2134	316	$108.11	73.3	31.6	1.48	.003	.002	.000	.000	.000
Slamin	2036	288	$78.55	63.3	18.9	.296	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
mathgodleo	2027	290	$76.71	62.1	18.0	.271	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
ColinMacLeod	2122	489	$125.52	64.7	28.8	3.74	.052	.040	.008	.003	.001
				Probability of advancing to:				Probability of finishing as:
Handle	Rating	Volatility	Earnings	Online 3	Online 4	Semifinals	Finals	4th	3rd	2nd	Champ
Yi_Zhang	2027	275	$75.84	62.7	17.5	.199	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Parchandri	2042	551	$106.72	57.5	22.7	2.85	.046	.036	.006	.002	.001
jonderry	2052	272	$81.35	66.3	20.4	.276	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
frane	1924	321	$60.19	48.3	9.93	.111	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
dana	2089	366	$98.91	66.1	25.9	1.49	.004	.003	.001	.000	.000
cnettel	2123	436	$118.74	66.5	29.2	3.05	.024	.019	.004	.001	.000
alexcchan	1920	203	$52.81	46.5	4.54	.001	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
kyky	2008	305	$73.69	59.1	16.4	.273	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
jburnim	2027	408	$86.49	58.7	20.3	1.18	.004	.003	.000	.000	.000
ragnabot	1990	285	$68.98	57.3	14.0	.139	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Larry	1983	337	$70.97	55.3	15.0	.331	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
dpecora	1941	242	$58.28	50.5	7.87	.015	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Googly	1908	229	$52.54	44.8	5.09	.004	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
pzhao	2018	410	$84.53	57.8	19.5	1.10	.003	.003	.000	.000	.000
jasonw	2005	392	$79.88	56.8	18.1	.829	.002	.002	.000	.000	.000
turuthok	1929	218	$55.06	48.4	5.84	.004	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
				Probability of advancing to:				Probability of finishing as:
Handle	Rating	Volatility	Earnings	Online 3	Online 4	Semifinals	Finals	4th	3rd	2nd	Champ
PAKETA	1904	271	$54.44	45.0	6.71	.021	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
abiczo	1904	427	$64.64	46.8	11.8	.438	.001	.001	.000	.000	.000
DrewHudson	1917	288	$57.20	47.1	8.20	.045	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
bsdude	1977	316	$68.45	54.9	13.8	.216	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
valeriy	1895	246	$51.75	43.1	5.14	.006	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Kavan	1979	301	$67.90	55.5	13.5	.165	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Jumping John	1943	407	$69.23	50.5	13.8	.518	.001	.001	.000	.000	.000
PurpleBob	1889	387	$59.59	45.0	9.87	.223	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
tph	1972	364	$70.98	53.8	14.8	.427	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Greyve	1839	211	$42.71	32.0	1.69	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
achurch	1968	430	$75.80	52.8	16.0	.830	.002	.002	.000	.000	.000
futo	1872	405	$58.61	43.5	9.46	.239	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
mortijingle	1913	431	$66.30	47.7	12.4	.497	.001	.001	.000	.000	.000
thooot	1837	265	$45.95	35.2	3.33	.004	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
chogyonim	1848	518	$63.73	43.1	11.0	.613	.003	.002	.000	.000	.000
kyotov	1856	344	$52.75	40.6	6.79	.067	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
				Probability of advancing to:				Probability of finishing as:
Handle	Rating	Volatility	Earnings	Online 3	Online 4	Semifinals	Finals	4th	3rd	2nd	Champ
shuvovse	1864	404	$57.52	42.7	9.01	.214	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
joeli	1848	250	$46.23	36.0	3.21	.003	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Pops	1893	335	$56.74	44.7	8.46	.094	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
solman	1828	304	$47.37	35.9	4.28	.014	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
assembler	1805	223	$40.08	27.6	1.27	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
gladius	1831	260	$45.03	34.1	2.96	.003	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
PacerGuy	1944	379	$67.23	50.7	13.1	.377	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
dokon	1785	339	$45.33	32.6	3.84	.019	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Ruberik	2024	673	$117.18	55.1	22.2	3.69	.112	.085	.015	.007	.005
tenken	1821	372	$50.67	37.7	6.11	.074	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
sliu	1775	477	$52.54	36.6	7.06	.216	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
sandeepgupta	1758	395	$46.18	32.4	4.48	.049	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
jfreyss	1886	421	$61.61	45.1	10.7	.339	.001	.000	.000	.000	.000
Porgery	1739	271	$37.76	23.2	1.17	.001	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
abheek	1785	309	$43.60	31.0	3.02	.008	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
router	1817	404	$52.17	38.2	6.84	.122	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
				Probability of advancing to:				Probability of finishing as:
Handle	Rating	Volatility	Earnings	Online 3	Online 4	Semifinals	Finals	4th	3rd	2nd	Champ
Harold	1871	493	$64.99	44.6	11.6	.608	.002	.002	.000	.000	.000
Koroibos	1731	326	$40.32	26.3	2.14	.005	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Minsk	1821	504	$59.32	40.8	9.49	.438	.001	.001	.000	.000	.000
dark_legend	1774	289	$41.51	28.5	2.21	.003	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
tck	1710	401	$42.85	28.5	3.33	.030	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
koehrsen	1728	241	$35.21	19.3	.580	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Smiley=)	1699	325	$38.13	23.1	1.55	.003	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Tomson	1704	277	$35.81	19.9	.840	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
farsight	1741	414	$45.87	31.7	4.44	.058	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
danlief	1682	355	$38.65	23.5	1.83	.006	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
ValD	1738	397	$44.69	30.7	3.95	.040	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
UFP2161	1708	389	$42.07	27.7	3.02	.021	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
mcphee	1730	311	$39.42	25.2	1.80	.003	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Running Wild	1703	498	$47.53	31.8	5.24	.138	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
AdamSelene	1636	272	$32.00	13.4	.302	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
mbarb	1642	294	$33.38	15.7	.517	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
				Probability of advancing to:				Probability of finishing as:
Handle	Rating	Volatility	Earnings	Online 3	Online 4	Semifinals	Finals	4th	3rd	2nd	Champ
jehamby	1680	281	$34.64	18.0	.663	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Wombatfreak	1750	367	$43.99	30.4	3.55	.024	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
amirshim	1601	242	$29.21	8.27	.071	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
PongsriBunny	1594	240	$28.90	7.68	.058	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
hamster	1907	579	$78.32	47.9	15.0	1.39	.015	.012	.002	.001	.000
omasoud	1593	516	$41.29	25.1	3.12	.059	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
toast	1574	321	$31.80	12.9	.372	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
kats	1678	357	$38.51	23.3	1.80	.005	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Vaduz	1616	309	$32.94	14.9	.495	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
emmpee	1628	463	$40.76	25.1	2.84	.035	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
merolish	1572	297	$30.68	10.9	.220	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
leelin	1602	435	$38.09	22.0	1.96	.015	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
fiveEasyPieces	1692	391	$41.11	26.4	2.72	.018	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
jlittle	1544	376	$33.02	14.7	.647	.001	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
bengle	1568	495	$39.06	22.7	2.39	.032	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
port6000	1717	423	$44.52	30.0	3.99	.050	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
				Probability of advancing to:				Probability of finishing as:
Handle	Rating	Volatility	Earnings	Online 3	Online 4	Semifinals	Finals	4th	3rd	2nd	Champ
CompuSciNut	1572	321	$31.72	12.7	.362	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
coachbudka	1527	380	$32.56	13.9	.583	.001	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
nealzane	1544	496	$37.97	21.3	2.07	.025	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
bm999	1591	492	$40.08	24.0	2.70	.039	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
MisterZimbu	1560	247	$28.22	6.37	.040	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
cbaray	1531	286	$28.98	7.77	.091	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Ukraine	1578	482	$38.98	22.7	2.34	.028	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
FogleBird	1564	414	$35.41	18.3	1.21	.005	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
userundefined	1561	376	$33.67	15.8	.763	.001	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
pearl	1502	323	$29.59	8.87	.156	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
\u0043\u0042	1549	351	$32.16	13.4	.471	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Ag98	1505	321	$29.60	8.89	.157	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Dumitru	1473	478	$34.43	16.5	1.11	.007	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Fred[dy]	1543	334	$31.26	11.9	.326	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
ccooper	1455	285	$27.30	4.55	.025	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
nacul	1446	335	$28.65	7.11	.099	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
				Probability of advancing to:				Probability of finishing as:
Handle	Rating	Volatility	Earnings	Online 3	Online 4	Semifinals	Finals	4th	3rd	2nd	Champ
GamePimp	1492	336	$29.80	9.23	.184	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
cgu	1499	416	$33.00	14.5	.719	.002	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
TheSkipper	1489	500	$35.85	18.4	1.50	.014	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
sargentm	1446	263	$26.57	3.12	.009	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
aussie	1564	679	$47.40	29.1	5.19	.263	.002	.002	.000	.000	.000
Tinkles	1476	398	$31.60	12.3	.458	.001	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
TheFaxman	1506	507	$36.80	19.7	1.76	.020	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
huntergt	1402	306	$27.03	4.02	.022	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
JayTea	1439	318	$27.98	5.85	.058	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
harisuthan	1421	366	$29.09	7.89	.148	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
reiners	1377	325	$27.14	4.23	.028	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
NSantos	1378	352	$27.86	5.59	.063	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
mas13081	1464	400	$31.32	11.8	.421	.001	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
roguexz	1417	380	$29.45	8.52	.185	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
phark4evr	1414	402	$30.07	9.61	.266	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
dweebo	1392	295	$26.63	3.24	.013	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
				Probability of advancing to:				Probability of finishing as:
Handle	Rating	Volatility	Earnings	Online 3	Online 4	Semifinals	Finals	4th	3rd	2nd	Champ
Nexius	1294	284	$25.60	1.19	.001	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Gagan	1265	343	$26.26	2.51	.010	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
Hitiek	1312	421	$28.56	6.85	.130	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
giginim	1257	394	$27.14	4.20	.040	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
EuclidCT	1241	430	$27.70	5.24	.073	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
dplass	1186	532	$29.17	7.85	.236	.001	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
irulet	1218	435	$27.51	4.89	.064	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000
rcrdev	988	565	$27.39	4.62	.079	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000	.000