radeye's odds

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Beat the odds! These results of over 10,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations predict your chances to advance in the 2004 TopCoder Open based only on your current TopCoder rating and volatility. Prove that you're underrated as you advance through the Tournament. Also remember that in any sufficiently large set of events, some will be of vanishingly small probability.

The model used here is a normal distribution with the mean of your rating and standard deviation of your volatility, assuming every advancing coder scores at least 0 points, and everyone competes in every round they are eligible for. This information is provided for entertainment purposes only.
By radeye
TopCoder Member

Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Semifinals Wildcard Wildcard Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
tomek 3502 311 $10,775.71 99.87 28.41 13.69 80.23 5.92 13.86 23.03 37.41
SnapDragon 3407 262 $7,438.50 99.93 46.73 18.63 64.82 6.58 15.80 22.29 20.15
Eryx 3233 339 $3,905.20 97.74 47.11 11.54 43.35 11.90 12.91 10.67 7.87
snewman 3336 302 $6,116.83 99.49 42.86 13.65 60.19 10.33 17.09 17.97 14.80
reid 3167 323 $2,392.75 97.11 51.51 9.61 26.71 8.49 8.34 6.15 3.73
Yarin 3085 339 $1,726.71 94.22 46.69 6.50 19.52 7.52 6.02 3.83 2.16
ZorbaTHut 3109 221 $1,367.04 99.28 62.08 5.82 14.39 5.09 5.27 3.02 1.00
John Dethridge 3260 471 $4,165.47 93.47 37.55 12.02 41.51 11.88 9.88 8.86 10.90
antimatter 2763 370 $552.76 71.84 18.24 0.67 3.86 2.50 0.92 0.32 0.11
bstanescu 2859 385 $784.08 78.99 25.09 1.59 7.75 4.47 2.01 0.89 0.38
venco 2831 260 $559.87 85.80 22.00 0.48 2.26 1.40 0.64 0.18 0.03
nicka81 2784 322 $523.91 76.67 17.37 0.51 2.47 1.57 0.64 0.21 0.06
dgarthur 2731 430 $526.93 66.40 14.21 0.70 3.66 2.35 0.83 0.33 0.15
lars 2757 320 $484.77 74.16 14.63 0.36 1.79 1.17 0.45 0.14 0.04
haha 2785 454 $644.22 69.92 16.46 1.16 5.56 3.36 1.29 0.59 0.32
bigg_nate 2597 334 $344.71 55.58 6.43 0.07 0.58 0.44 0.11 0.02 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Semifinals Wildcard Wildcard Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
gepa 2581 350 $336.81 53.49 6.35 0.07 0.66 0.51 0.12 0.03 0.01
Jan_Kuipers 2771 321 $515.68 75.46 16.63 0.44 2.48 1.60 0.63 0.19 0.05
mathijs 2764 406 $568.53 70.20 15.79 0.77 4.26 2.71 0.99 0.39 0.16
grotmol 2573 730 $585.84 51.21 8.49 0.87 6.11 4.13 0.92 0.52 0.55
Klinck 2641 277 $375.42 62.83 6.91 0.05 0.39 0.30 0.08 0.01 0.00
marian 2523 158 $266.69 43.33 0.74 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
AdrianKuegel 2572 253 $319.33 53.36 3.26 0.01 0.09 0.08 0.02 0.00 0.00
monsoon 2597 389 $355.69 54.80 6.91 0.13 1.00 0.74 0.20 0.05 0.02
benetin 2597 341 $344.48 55.46 5.97 0.07 0.57 0.43 0.11 0.03 0.01
DjinnKahn 2360 191 $132.81 16.56 0.08 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
doeth 2349 334 $186.82 27.18 0.84 0.00 0.04 0.03 0.00 0.00 0.00
ambrose 2432 491 $277.55 40.36 3.96 0.08 0.86 0.68 0.13 0.04 0.02
Olexiy 2579 459 $372.39 52.48 7.34 0.23 1.79 1.31 0.33 0.11 0.05
overwise 2502 409 $295.09 45.20 4.48 0.06 0.66 0.52 0.10 0.03 0.01
cnettel 2287 321 $152.81 20.49 0.42 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
tmyklebu 2362 398 $212.56 31.62 1.76 0.01 0.18 0.15 0.02 0.00 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Semifinals Wildcard Wildcard Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
Ruberik 2391 462 $246.02 36.32 2.99 0.04 0.52 0.43 0.07 0.02 0.01
RalphFurmaniak 2279 381 $169.47 23.64 0.80 0.00 0.05 0.05 0.01 0.00 0.00
Modulator 2305 313 $158.15 21.56 0.45 0.00 0.02 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
ssancho2 2245 339 $141.59 18.26 0.34 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
pparys 2423 527 $286.10 40.31 4.20 0.11 1.12 0.88 0.16 0.05 0.02
hauser 2319 481 $215.55 31.32 2.04 0.02 0.33 0.28 0.04 0.01 0.00
Matei 2156 300 $97.38 9.47 0.05 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
dark_lord 2189 404 $142.45 18.36 0.43 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
mickle 2096 260 $71.18 4.24 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
dvickrey 2136 382 $118.96 13.75 0.19 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00
Sord 2073 286 $74.41 4.88 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
marek.cygan 2102 321 $90.72 8.14 0.04 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
moggy 2053 318 $79.69 5.94 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
konqueror 2094 443 $125.33 14.96 0.29 0.00 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00
Andrew_Lazarev 2118 533 $156.43 20.65 0.80 0.01 0.13 0.11 0.01 0.00 0.00
qsort 1979 299 $64.46 2.89 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
Probability of advancing to: Probability of finishing as:
Handle Rating Volatility Earnings Semifinals Wildcard Wildcard Win Finals 4th 3rd 2nd Champ
InsaneParadox 1845 426 $74.27 4.85 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00
dmytro 1669 569 $79.89 5.96 0.05 0.00 0.01 0.01 0.00 0.00 0.00