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radeye's odds |
Round 1 | Round 2 | Round 3 | Round 4 | Semifinals | |
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Beat the odds! These results of over 10,000,000 Monte Carlo simulations predict your chances to advance in the 2004 TopCoder Open based only on your current TopCoder rating and volatility. Prove that you're underrated as you advance through the Tournament. Also remember that in any sufficiently large set of events, some will be of vanishingly small probability. The model used here is a normal distribution with the mean of your rating and standard deviation of your volatility, assuming every advancing coder scores at least 0 points, and everyone competes in every round they are eligible for. This information is provided for entertainment purposes only. |
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By radeye TopCoder Member |
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| Probability of advancing to: | Probability of finishing as: | |||||||||||
| Handle | Rating | Volatility | Earnings | Online 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Wildcard Win | Finals | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | Champ |
| tomek | 3524 | 334 | $11,569.74 | 99.99 | 99.69 | 26.30 | 13.63 | 81.68 | 5.24 | 12.20 | 21.60 | 42.64 |
| SnapDragon | 3390 | 281 | $7,319.04 | 100.00 | 99.72 | 43.50 | 17.15 | 63.75 | 6.65 | 15.26 | 22.09 | 19.76 |
| Eryx | 3283 | 348 | $4,971.63 | 99.79 | 97.34 | 41.45 | 12.44 | 50.36 | 10.70 | 14.14 | 13.92 | 11.60 |
| snewman | 3265 | 283 | $4,403.82 | 99.97 | 98.98 | 49.63 | 13.01 | 46.61 | 9.38 | 14.68 | 13.86 | 8.68 |
| reid | 3216 | 330 | $3,279.80 | 99.76 | 96.69 | 47.85 | 11.68 | 35.00 | 8.99 | 10.56 | 9.23 | 6.23 |
| Yarin | 3072 | 367 | $1,714.47 | 98.44 | 88.91 | 41.02 | 6.36 | 18.92 | 7.11 | 5.61 | 3.84 | 2.37 |
| ZorbaTHut | 3066 | 213 | $1,114.02 | 99.98 | 98.35 | 57.03 | 4.33 | 10.43 | 3.81 | 3.89 | 2.11 | 0.62 |
| John Dethridge | 3135 | 401 | $2,347.07 | 98.34 | 89.63 | 37.64 | 7.98 | 25.56 | 8.55 | 7.18 | 5.60 | 4.22 |
| antimatter | 2789 | 396 | $543.37 | 90.11 | 62.00 | 15.73 | 0.86 | 4.52 | 2.71 | 1.13 | 0.48 | 0.19 |
| bstanescu | 2847 | 418 | $710.61 | 91.32 | 66.42 | 18.57 | 1.46 | 7.17 | 3.99 | 1.84 | 0.90 | 0.44 |
| radeye | 3002 | 361 | $1,234.15 | 97.71 | 85.06 | 31.26 | 3.58 | 13.64 | 5.97 | 4.11 | 2.39 | 1.18 |
| venco | 2848 | 279 | $563.46 | 97.86 | 79.90 | 20.54 | 0.67 | 2.89 | 1.65 | 0.87 | 0.31 | 0.07 |
| nicka81 | 2754 | 342 | $435.05 | 91.73 | 62.29 | 12.82 | 0.41 | 2.06 | 1.29 | 0.53 | 0.19 | 0.05 |
| WishingBone | 2798 | 212 | $483.97 | 99.19 | 81.90 | 14.86 | 0.17 | 0.72 | 0.45 | 0.21 | 0.05 | 0.01 |
| dgarthur | 2773 | 455 | $517.33 | 86.17 | 56.20 | 12.73 | 0.92 | 4.31 | 2.56 | 1.01 | 0.49 | 0.26 |
| lars | 2743 | 346 | $419.31 | 90.99 | 60.54 | 11.65 | 0.37 | 1.91 | 1.22 | 0.48 | 0.17 | 0.05 |
| Probability of advancing to: | Probability of finishing as: | |||||||||||
| Handle | Rating | Volatility | Earnings | Online 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Wildcard Win | Finals | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | Champ |
| haha | 2806 | 491 | $635.18 | 85.90 | 57.25 | 13.63 | 1.28 | 6.32 | 3.60 | 1.46 | 0.77 | 0.49 |
| bigg_nate | 2620 | 358 | $284.99 | 82.98 | 43.68 | 5.69 | 0.10 | 0.79 | 0.57 | 0.16 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| gepa | 2571 | 380 | $242.86 | 77.90 | 36.85 | 4.28 | 0.07 | 0.63 | 0.47 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.01 |
| jms137 | 2638 | 323 | $302.81 | 86.65 | 47.82 | 5.98 | 0.08 | 0.65 | 0.47 | 0.14 | 0.04 | 0.01 |
| Jan_Kuipers | 2710 | 313 | $379.74 | 91.52 | 58.82 | 9.36 | 0.18 | 1.17 | 0.78 | 0.29 | 0.08 | 0.02 |
| mathijs | 2705 | 419 | $393.04 | 84.57 | 51.00 | 9.32 | 0.42 | 2.48 | 1.61 | 0.57 | 0.22 | 0.09 |
| jshute | 2779 | 447 | $531.17 | 86.86 | 57.31 | 12.65 | 0.89 | 4.54 | 2.69 | 1.08 | 0.51 | 0.26 |
| grotmol | 2565 | 797 | $394.96 | 64.03 | 30.95 | 4.88 | 0.60 | 4.19 | 2.73 | 0.62 | 0.38 | 0.46 |
| texel | 2691 | 491 | $399.76 | 79.99 | 46.13 | 8.64 | 0.55 | 3.09 | 1.98 | 0.65 | 0.30 | 0.16 |
| Klinck | 2587 | 270 | $259.68 | 87.18 | 42.45 | 3.01 | 0.01 | 0.14 | 0.10 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| ChristopherH | 2471 | 374 | $168.09 | 69.62 | 25.62 | 1.85 | 0.02 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| LunaticFringe | 2710 | 395 | $386.58 | 86.26 | 52.96 | 9.54 | 0.37 | 2.07 | 1.33 | 0.49 | 0.18 | 0.07 |
| marian | 2526 | 172 | $206.61 | 91.93 | 32.11 | 0.54 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| AdrianKuegel | 2606 | 261 | $279.42 | 89.35 | 46.06 | 3.46 | 0.02 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 0.03 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| monsoon | 2490 | 341 | $178.68 | 73.20 | 27.61 | 1.83 | 0.01 | 0.15 | 0.12 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| ploh | 2495 | 249 | $179.36 | 80.55 | 27.70 | 0.94 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Probability of advancing to: | Probability of finishing as: | |||||||||||
| Handle | Rating | Volatility | Earnings | Online 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Wildcard Win | Finals | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | Champ |
| benetin | 2500 | 275 | $184.14 | 78.82 | 28.69 | 1.26 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ryan | 2574 | 339 | $243.22 | 80.78 | 38.27 | 3.60 | 0.04 | 0.39 | 0.29 | 0.08 | 0.02 | 0.00 |
| aneubeck | 2534 | 390 | $213.58 | 74.34 | 32.40 | 3.13 | 0.05 | 0.48 | 0.37 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.01 |
| DjinnKahn | 2347 | 207 | $69.70 | 62.65 | 7.67 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| doeth | 2276 | 321 | $64.72 | 49.52 | 7.97 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| ambrose | 2270 | 263 | $51.27 | 48.49 | 5.40 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| JongMan | 2399 | 578 | $161.35 | 58.21 | 21.22 | 2.15 | 0.08 | 0.80 | 0.61 | 0.12 | 0.04 | 0.02 |
| evd | 2306 | 327 | $76.94 | 53.20 | 10.02 | 0.21 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Olexiy | 2539 | 490 | $233.98 | 70.26 | 31.79 | 3.92 | 0.14 | 1.17 | 0.85 | 0.21 | 0.08 | 0.03 |
| PMH | 2355 | 398 | $108.84 | 57.54 | 15.60 | 0.73 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| overwise | 2453 | 437 | $164.42 | 65.47 | 24.24 | 2.01 | 0.03 | 0.36 | 0.28 | 0.06 | 0.01 | 0.00 |
| cnettel | 2264 | 348 | $65.41 | 48.18 | 8.22 | 0.16 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Wasteland | 2259 | 334 | $61.30 | 47.50 | 7.49 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cvoinescu | 2180 | 197 | $18.85 | 30.78 | 0.69 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ken_Vogel | 2265 | 500 | $89.43 | 48.81 | 12.32 | 0.68 | 0.01 | 0.13 | 0.11 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Maris | 2341 | 295 | $86.03 | 58.24 | 11.36 | 0.20 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Probability of advancing to: | Probability of finishing as: | |||||||||||
| Handle | Rating | Volatility | Earnings | Online 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Wildcard Win | Finals | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | Champ |
| daveagp | 2193 | 349 | $45.27 | 40.14 | 5.03 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| krijgertje | 2308 | 465 | $99.21 | 52.44 | 13.96 | 0.77 | 0.01 | 0.12 | 0.10 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| tmyklebu | 2237 | 329 | $53.60 | 44.82 | 6.22 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| legakis | 2205 | 202 | $23.61 | 35.64 | 1.16 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Ruberik | 2293 | 450 | $91.50 | 51.20 | 12.76 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.08 | 0.07 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| RalphFurmaniak | 2203 | 385 | $53.59 | 42.06 | 6.47 | 0.13 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Modulator | 2251 | 318 | $55.88 | 46.40 | 6.53 | 0.08 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| ssancho2 | 2181 | 341 | $41.15 | 38.55 | 4.37 | 0.05 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| pparys | 2240 | 408 | $67.56 | 46.10 | 8.80 | 0.26 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| hauser | 2212 | 465 | $68.09 | 44.18 | 8.99 | 0.34 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| bogklug | 2201 | 299 | $38.80 | 39.58 | 3.80 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Matei | 2108 | 316 | $23.96 | 29.26 | 1.87 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| dark_lord | 2035 | 236 | $8.39 | 15.10 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| martinp534 | 2313 | 419 | $94.20 | 53.17 | 13.22 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| ColinMacLeod | 2003 | 333 | $14.11 | 20.22 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| mickle | 2051 | 263 | $11.74 | 19.25 | 0.42 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Probability of advancing to: | Probability of finishing as: | |||||||||||
| Handle | Rating | Volatility | Earnings | Online 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Wildcard Win | Finals | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | Champ |
| dvickrey | 2075 | 393 | $29.07 | 30.04 | 2.80 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| robymus | 2062 | 285 | $14.82 | 22.22 | 0.74 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| valeriy | 2038 | 268 | $11.15 | 18.37 | 0.39 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Sord | 2027 | 293 | $12.46 | 19.39 | 0.55 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| marek.cygan | 2030 | 313 | $14.59 | 21.21 | 0.80 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jumping John | 2020 | 244 | $8.05 | 14.44 | 0.17 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rem | 2083 | 257 | $14.02 | 22.21 | 0.58 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| moggy | 1920 | 184 | $1.40 | 2.79 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| WhiteShadow | 1977 | 301 | $9.59 | 15.71 | 0.35 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| konqueror | 1975 | 413 | $19.20 | 22.92 | 1.54 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Andrew_Lazarev | 2008 | 536 | $36.37 | 30.52 | 4.15 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| cruizza | 1967 | 269 | $6.86 | 12.30 | 0.14 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Veloso | 2003 | 420 | $22.85 | 25.40 | 2.03 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| agh | 2029 | 284 | $11.84 | 18.86 | 0.48 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| riveria | 2088 | 375 | $28.73 | 30.37 | 2.70 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| amirshim | 1952 | 404 | $16.28 | 20.77 | 1.18 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Probability of advancing to: | Probability of finishing as: | |||||||||||
| Handle | Rating | Volatility | Earnings | Online 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Wildcard Win | Finals | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | Champ |
| qsort | 1909 | 291 | $5.63 | 10.17 | 0.11 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| gunnark | 2094 | 327 | $23.43 | 28.45 | 1.84 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| shuniu | 1885 | 266 | $3.66 | 6.98 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| rotoZOOM | 2017 | 533 | $37.26 | 31.01 | 4.28 | 0.12 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| tgu | 1895 | 380 | $10.37 | 15.50 | 0.52 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| kyky | 1935 | 316 | $8.24 | 13.73 | 0.28 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| centipede80 | 1803 | 403 | $7.41 | 11.79 | 0.30 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| lanenal | 1798 | 301 | $2.89 | 5.52 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| anikov | 1695 | 333 | $2.07 | 3.98 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| indigo9 | 1797 | 299 | $2.81 | 5.37 | 0.02 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| nealzane | 1889 | 420 | $12.88 | 17.51 | 0.82 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Jasko | 1823 | 572 | $19.97 | 21.12 | 1.86 | 0.03 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| InsaneParadox | 1747 | 417 | $6.10 | 10.01 | 0.22 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| solman | 1669 | 518 | $8.12 | 11.83 | 0.44 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| DimaGer | 1706 | 575 | $12.76 | 15.82 | 0.97 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| kolodrub | 1641 | 348 | $1.73 | 3.34 | 0.01 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Probability of advancing to: | Probability of finishing as: | |||||||||||
| Handle | Rating | Volatility | Earnings | Online 4 | Semifinals | Wildcard | Wildcard Win | Finals | 4th | 3rd | 2nd | Champ |
| liympanda | 2049 | 454 | $32.77 | 30.48 | 3.49 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| EnckePan | 1687 | 388 | $3.48 | 6.30 | 0.06 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| dmytro | 1510 | 531 | $4.41 | 7.31 | 0.15 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Rustyoldman | 1527 | 473 | $3.12 | 5.54 | 0.07 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |